Boise State is my No. 4 seed; the Pate State Model has it outside the preseason top 25. Three straight conference titles, 94.3% of passing production and 100.4% of rushing production drive my pick. Against that, the receiving corps returns 39.6% of its PPA before the Sept. 5 opener at Oregon.
As Boise State prepares to open at Oregon, the 2025 record reads 9–5 and a third straight Mountain West championship. The losses tell the other half: 7.6 points per defeat, exactly seven in four of five.
Boise State opened Aug. 28 with a 34–7 loss at South Florida, then scored seven in a 28–7 loss at Notre Dame on Oct. 4, a 30–7 home loss to Fresno State on Nov. 1 and a 17–7 loss at San Diego State on Nov. 16. Washington closed the season with a 38–10 LA Bowl win on Dec. 14. Boise State scored 38 points across five losses after scoring 38 in the Mountain West championship.
The offense averaged 42.2 points in nine wins and 7.6 in five losses. Boise State produced 2,512 rushing yards, 29 rushing touchdowns and 33 minutes of possession per game, but negative plays and obvious passing downs changed the offense. The Broncos allowed 26 sacks, committed 97 penalties for 832 yards and turned the ball over 21 times. Maddux Madsen threw nine interceptions; Max Cutforth threw five, including three in the second half against Washington.
The defense recorded 84 tackles for loss, 28 sacks and 14 interceptions while forcing 23 turnovers. It also allowed 2,273 rushing yards and 24.1 points per game; the five teams that beat Boise State averaged 29.4. Fresno State and Washington each reached 30 while Boise State scored 17 combined points.
Boise State left quarterback alone in the winter portal. Madsen returns as the starter, Cutforth is No. 2 and Zeke Martinez is behind them. Madsen completed 58.3 percent for 2,333 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions, missed the final three regular-season games with a lower-leg injury, then returned for the Mountain West championship and bowl. Spencer Danielson identified fewer sacks, penalties and giveaways after the season. Boise State opens Saturday, Sept. 5, at Oregon.
Kage Casey was Boise State’s only 2026 draft pick, while 19 players entered the portal, including leading tackler Ty Benefield and 574-yard receiver Chris Marshall. Eleven transfers arrived across the secondary, defensive line, offensive line, linebacker, running back and receiver. Boise State returns 66.3 percent of its production overall: 94.3 percent of passing production and 100.4 percent of rushing production, but 39.6 percent of receiving production.
The supplied reporting identifies no staff change, so none is inferred here.
I put Boise State on the No. 4 seed line, while the Pate State Model keeps the Broncos outside its preseason top 25. The split is 94.3% of the passing production and 100.4% of the rushing production back against 39.6% of the receiving production; heading into the Oregon opener, Boise State needs a cleaner Madsen and a settled line.
Maddux Madsen completed 176 of 302 passes for 2,333 yards, 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2025: 58.3% completions and 7.7 yards per attempt. He missed the final three regular-season games with a lower-leg injury, then returned for the Mountain West Championship and LA Bowl. Boise State averaged 42.2 points in nine wins and 7.6 in five losses, with seven points in four of those losses. It scored 56 against UNLV and disappeared in too many other games.
Boise State left the winter portal without a quarterback, returning Madsen, Max Cutforth and Zeke Martinez. Cutforth won the No. 2 job after completing 95 of 167 passes for 1,059 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions; three came in the second half of the 38-10 LA Bowl loss to Washington. Madsen needs to improve on 58.3%, and the offense needs fewer than the 26 sacks, 21 turnovers and 97 penalties that created bad downs.
The supplied reporting does not identify the coordinator or 2026 play-caller. Danielson named turnovers, penalties and sacks as the three offensive numbers that must change. Madsen matters, but protection, procedure and down-and-distance belong to the whole offense.
Dylan Riley ran 195 times for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns at 5.8 per carry. Sire Gaines added 812 yards, eight touchdowns and 5.0 per carry. Boise State ran for 2,512 yards and 29 touchdowns, and 100.4% of its rushing production returns. Riley is also the primary kickoff returner. The backs can keep second-level defenders downhill and keep Madsen out of obvious passing downs.
Only 39.6% of receiving production returns, and Chris Marshall transferred after leading the 2025 group with 574 yards at 19.1 per catch. The returning order at receiver and tight end is not identified in the supplied reporting. Up front, fourth-round pick Kage Casey is gone, Jason Steele and Stewart Taufa alternated in Saturday’s scrimmage, and Daylon Metoyer and Jacob Tracy remained in another competition. That is a lot of communication to settle before Oregon.
Danielson said Steele and Taufa went back and forth throughout camp and were still flip-flopped during Saturday’s scrimmage. The supplied reporting does not identify the position. Boise State is replacing Kage Casey, the only Bronco selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, at No. 111, while Metoyer and Tracy remained in another competition. Multiple combinations were still under evaluation.
The winner takes the job, the five-man communication settles and Boise State can build around Riley without constantly protecting the protection.
The rotation carries into September, Oregon attacks the new combination and Madsen gets more of the sack-and-turnover conditions Danielson wants removed.
Check the starting five, substitution pattern, sacks allowed and pre-snap penalties at Oregon on Sept. 5. A clean lineup and clean road operation would be early proof that the competition found an answer.
Boise State produced 84 tackles for loss, 28 sacks and 14 interceptions last season while allowing 24.1 points and 162.4 rushing yards per game. heading into the Oregon opener, the first Pac-12 defense has to replace production in the middle and settle a secondary remade by the portal.
Boise State allowed 337 points in 14 games, held opponents to 62 conversions on 184 third downs, forced 23 turnovers and gave up 175.5 passing yards per game. Across five losses, the Broncos allowed 29.4 points per game: 34 at South Florida, 30 against Fresno State and 38 against Washington. The offense scored 10 points or fewer in every loss, but the run defense gave up 2,273 yards in 14 games.
Ty Benefield transferred to LSU after leading Boise State with 105 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions. Jaylen Webb, Ja’Bree Bickham and Davon Banks also left through the portal. No Boise State defender was selected in the 2026 NFL Draft; offensive tackle Kage Casey was the program’s lone pick. Benefield’s tackles, alignment flexibility and production now have to come from more than one player.
Jayden Virgin-Morgan returns with 6 sacks, 13 tackles for loss and 12 quarterback hurries. Jaden Mickey had 7 tackles for loss and five pass breakups, and Boen Phelps made 66 tackles. Jake Ripp had 43 tackles in 2025 but missed camp time with a hamstring and was expected back during Oregon preparation. Spencer Danielson said Logan Brantley had returned and was doing good work, while the middle-linebacker rotation remained unresolved entering game week.
The portal brought Mikaio Edward from Central Washington to the line, Brantley from Kansas at linebacker, Cam Jamerson and JeRico Washington Jr. at corner, and Taebron Bennie-Powell and Roman Tillmon at safety. The official two-deep is due Monday, one day after this page closes. Danielson named David Latu and Edward as the leading interior starters, but said the next three or four rotational jobs lacked consistency. Oregon gets a new interior and an unfinished rotation. Latu and Edward need to hold early downs, and Virgin-Morgan needs pass-rush downs.
Six days from publication, the new interior rotation opens at Oregon. Early-down rushing yards, missed fits and Virgin-Morgan’s third-and-long chances matter first.
The second game puts Oregon’s issues at middle linebacker and behind Latu and Edward back on the field.
Boise State allowed 30 points in last season’s loss to Fresno State. By the rematch, the run defense and secondary communication need to be settled.
Seven games into the season, on the road in Pac-12 play, the defensive-line rotation and middle-linebacker structure cannot still be August competitions.
A third season behind Madsen is Boise State’s bet after it left the transfer-quarterback market alone. He missed the final three regular-season games with a lower-leg injury, returned for the Mountain West championship and LA Bowl, and leads a room responsible for 94.3 percent of the returning passing production. But Boise threw 14 interceptions, allowed 26 sacks and scored seven offensive points in three games. Madsen has to be steadier when protection breaks down or the score turns.
Virgin-Morgan’s 13 tackles for loss led the verified returning production, and his six sacks and 12 quarterback hurries gave Boise a pressure source. The Broncos allowed 2,273 rushing yards in 14 games, Ty Benefield left for LSU after 105 tackles, and interior and middle-linebacker jobs remained unsettled after Saturday’s scrimmage. Virgin-Morgan can make offenses account for him before the snap.
Riley ran for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns at 5.8 per carry, then became the primary kickoff returner after Saturday’s scrimmage. Boise returns 100.4 percent of its rushing production, but Riley has to keep that efficiency against the best fronts and keep Madsen out of obvious passing downs.
Gaines produced 812 yards and eight touchdowns on 161 carries, giving Boise a second back behind Riley. His 11 catches and 72 receiving yards leave room for a larger receiving role across an 11-game regular season.
Ford turned 21 catches into five touchdowns and 15.5 yards per reception. Chris Marshall left after 574 yards at 19.1 per catch, and Boise returns 39.6 percent of its receiving production; Ford needs weekly targets as well as red-zone work.
Bates gained 307 yards on 18 catches at 17.1 per reception. With 39.6 percent of receiving production back, Boise needs his route volume to rise without losing the vertical work.
Phelps had 66 tackles, five quarterback hurries and a 33-yard interception return for a touchdown in 2025. Danielson expects him to be one of Boise’s best defenders, while Jake Ripp works back from a hamstring issue and Logan Brantley returns to work. Benefield’s 105 tackles left for LSU.
Mickey posted seven tackles for loss and five passes defended from the defensive backfield. Boise intercepted 14 passes last season, but Benefield and multiple defensive backs exited through the portal. Mickey gives the rebuilt secondary a returning player who can affect runs, pressures and throws.
Ripp made 43 tackles and added three hurries in 2025. The middle-linebacker rotation remained unresolved after Saturday’s scrimmage, and his hamstring issue kept him out during camp. Boise needs him available so Phelps can stay in his own role.
Edward, a three-star transfer from Central Washington, emerged with David Latu at the front of the interior rotation. Boise allowed 2,273 rushing yards last season and was still seeking five or six trustworthy interior linemen on Saturday. Danielson named consistency as the issue for the starters and the players behind them.
Cutforth completed 95 of 167 passes for 1,059 yards in 2025 to win the backup job; three of his five interceptions came after halftime against Washington.
Wagner caught 23 passes for 246 yards and one touchdown, useful volume with Boise returning 39.6 percent of its receiving production.
Esty is a three-star interior-line transfer joining the competition after Boise lost fourth-round tackle Kage Casey and multiple linemen through the portal.
Goff is a three-star transfer entering a backfield with Riley and Gaines.
Danielson identified Latu and Mikaio Edward as the two current interior starters while asking the rotation for more consistency.
Brantley, a three-star transfer, had returned to work by Saturday and remains part of the unsettled middle-linebacker rotation.
Jamerson is a three-star cornerback addition in a secondary where competition remained active through the final weekend of camp.
Moore handled first-team field-goal reps after going 1-for-2 with a long of 35 in 2025; Danielson called kicker the specialists room’s biggest competition.
NFL comparisons appear only when they clarify a player, and none is needed here. Pate State role language carries the evaluation.
Two line jobs remained open heading into the Oregon opener, Jason Steele or Stewart Taufa at left guard, Daylon Metoyer or Jacob Tracy at right tackle.
Ripp is returning from a hamstring issue, and Brantley is back in the competition. Danielson had not settled the MIKE rotation after camp.
Ford and Bates return 632 yards and six touchdowns, while Marshall's 574 yards left the room with only 39.6% of the team's receiving production returning.
Moore held first-team reps late in camp, but Danielson called the job a competition. Boomer made 11 of 15 attempts in 2025, including a 52-yarder.
Boise State allowed 2,273 rushing yards last season. Latu and Edward entered game week as the leading interior pair without a settled five- or six-man rotation behind them. Oregon can widen the box and run at those new combinations.
The offense allowed 26 sacks and threw 14 interceptions in 2025. Opponents can crowd the line, drop an apparent rusher and twist through either unresolved offensive-line job.
Riley and Gaines combined for 1,937 rushing yards, but Boise State returns 39.6% of its receiving production and lost Marshall's 19.1 yards per catch. Defenses can crowd the run and challenge Ford, Bates and the unsettled third receiver outside.
Benefield's 105 tackles left with him, and the projected safety replacements arrived through the portal. Opponents can use traffic before the snap, then tempo and crossers against a reassembled secondary.
Heading into the opener, Boise State has six home games, five road games and no soft landing. Sept. 5 at Oregon comes Memphis, with 60.4% of the receiving production gone and line jobs unsettled. Fresno State and Washington State are the road pressure points; Oregon State and San Diego State close November at home. That path supports my Aug. 19 No. 4-seed call, while the Model has Boise State outside its preseason top 25.
Oregon gets Boise State before the offensive-line and defensive-front jobs are settled; Oregon wins.
Seven days after Oregon, Boise State leans on its 100.4% returning rushing-production share.
The receiver rotation gets its first week to work after 2 pressure games.
After 97 penalties for 832 yards in 2025, Boise State needs a clean road game.
Boise State escaped 25–24 last November; the Pac-12 opener needs more than that.
Fresno State won 30–7 on the blue last season. Boise State gets the road answer here.
The bye splits 2 Pac-12 road games.
This is the hardest conference road game and the biggest step toward the title path.
One week after Washington State, Boise State needs its tackling and tempo in order.
Boise State won 49–21 last season, but this is still a November road game.
Boise State's 100.4% returning rushing-production share carries the late home game.
San Diego State won 17–7 last year. Boise State needs a passing-game answer.
The regular season ends Nov. 21, leaving 1 open Saturday before the postseason.
In game 1, I want to see Maddux Madsen handle pressure while the offensive front communicates through games and twists.
A win after the projected Oregon loss keeps the No. 4-seed path alive. A second loss leaves a conference-title path.
After 1 bye, Boise State needs its run game and defensive front to travel.
Boise State's quarterback experience and 100.4% returning rushing-production share need to carry the fourth quarter.
My Aug. 19 bracket gives Boise State the No. 4 seed. The Model has the Broncos outside its preseason top 25. Oregon on Sept. 5 and Memphis on Sept. 12 bring that gap forward fast.
Boise State returns Maddux Madsen, Max Cutforth and Zeke Martinez after adding no winter-portal quarterback. Madsen completed 58.3% for 2,333 yards, 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Cutforth threw 5 interceptions, including 3 in the second half of the 38–10 bowl loss to Washington. Madsen has to cut negative plays, and Cutforth has to be steady if needed.
Boise State returns a 100.4% PPA share of its rushing production. Dylan Riley ran for 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns at 5.8 per carry; Sire Gaines added 812 yards and 8 scores at 5.0. But 2,512 team rushing yards came with 4 games of 7 offensive points and another with 10.
The Broncos had 84 tackles for loss, 28 sacks and 14 interceptions. Jayden Virgin-Morgan had 13 tackles for loss and 6 sacks. They allowed 2,273 rushing yards, or 162.4 per game.
Boise State has 7 Pac-12 games and 6 home dates, but Oregon and Memphis arrive before Labor Day is 2 weeks old. An 0–2 start leaves little path to the No. 4 seed I published.
Only 39.6% of receiving production returns by CFBD's PPA share, and Chris Marshall left after 574 yards at 19.1 per catch. The run game needs a downfield answer.
Boise State had 21 turnovers, 97 penalties for 832 yards and 26 sacks allowed in 2025. Spencer Danielson named all 3 as offensive areas that must improve.
The defense allowed 2,273 rushing yards while holding the ball for 33 minutes per game. The front still needed 5 or 6 dependable rotation players, led by David Latu and Mikaio Edward.
Colton Boomer made 11 of 15 field goals in 2025, with a long of 52, while Canaan Moore received first-team work. Danielson called field-goal kicker the biggest specialist concern.
I have Boise State losing at Oregon and winning its other 10 regular-season games. That puts the Broncos at 10–1, atop the Pac-12 and in the playoff as the No. 4 seed. The Model has Boise State outside the top 25, and I own that difference.
The case starts with 100.4% of the rushing-production share returning, Madsen's 2 full seasons as a starter, and a defense with 84 tackles for loss and 14 interceptions. Boise State doesn't need to beat Oregon to control the conference, but it needs a functional offense and enough health for Memphis 7 days later.
The passing game is the problem. Madsen completed 58.3% with 9 interceptions, the offense allowed 26 sacks, and 39.6% of receiving production returns. Boise State scored 7 points in 4 losses and 10 in the fifth. The Championship Ceiling needs fewer empty possessions.
The 10–1 call breaks if the quarterback room keeps giving the ball away, the new receivers don't create explosives, or the defense keeps allowing 162.4 rushing yards per game. Sept. 5 tests protection, Sept. 12 tests the response, and Oct. 24 tests the road formula.
My floor is 8–3, with losses at Oregon and in 2 of the Memphis, Fresno State, Washington State, Oregon State and San Diego State group, followed by a missed playoff. My Championship Ceiling is 11–0, a Pac-12 championship and a playoff win before the run ends. The pick is 10–1, Pac-12 champion and No. 4 seed, not national champion. — JP
Every section was checked against the fact pack and the sources. Claims below were not supported or were contradicted by them; in a published annual each would be verified or cut.
No flags.