Georgia returns 99.7 percent of its passing production, but only 34.7 percent of its receiving production. Six departed top-seven targets leave the boldest bet in the receiver room. I have Georgia winning the national title, with Oklahoma on September 26 and Alabama on October 10 putting that bet under pressure.
As Georgia prepares to open against Tennessee State, the 2025 record starts with three scores: a 24-21 home loss to Alabama on September 27, a 28-7 win over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 6, and a 39-34 Sugar Bowl quarterfinal loss to Ole Miss on January 2. Georgia won the SEC, but 34 points weren't enough in its last game.
Georgia averaged 32.1 points, rushed for 2,553 yards and held the ball for 34 minutes per game, third nationally. It finished 55th nationally in plays of at least 20 yards and outside the top 50 in total offense for a second straight season. The Bulldogs had 18 fewer gains of at least 10 yards than in 2024, even while finishing fourth in the SEC in rushing.
Kirby Smart pointed to play-action: missed vision, busted routes and busted protection kept the run game from producing chunk throws. Gunner Stockton completed 69.7 percent of his passes, threw 24 touchdowns and five interceptions, and added 10 rushing scores. Against Ole Miss, Georgia scored 34 while its defense allowed 39.
Georgia allowed 17.6 points and 298.1 yards per game and gave up 1,142 rushing yards in 14 games. It also produced 19 sacks, seven interceptions and 13 forced turnovers. Georgia finished even in turnover margin after 13 giveaways.
Stockton returns with 99.7 percent of Georgia's passing production, and 99.3 percent of the rushing production returns behind Nate Frazier, Chauncey Bowens and four proven offensive-line building blocks. Sixteen of the 21 defenders with at least 150 snaps return.
Eight Bulldogs were drafted, including five offensive players, and six of Stockton's top seven pass catchers left. Zachariah Branch accounted for 81 receptions, 811 yards and six touchdowns. Isiah Canion arrives from Georgia Tech, London Humphreys returns after 18 catches for 276 yards and three touchdowns, and Lawson Luckie leads the tight ends. On September 26 against Oklahoma, watch whether Georgia can hit 20-yard plays when a defense crowds the run.
Verified marker: 16 of the 21 defenders who logged at least 150 snaps in 2025 return.
Georgia is No. 3 in both major preseason polls but No. 1 on my board, with 99.7 percent of its passing production, 99.3 percent of its rushing production and four experienced offensive-line building blocks back. The counterweight is six of the top seven pass catchers gone. Georgia has continuity everywhere except the place that must create more explosive plays.
Gunner Stockton completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 2,894 yards, 24 touchdowns and five interceptions in his first full season as the starter. He added 462 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, finished seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting and won at Tennessee, Auburn, Florida and Alabama. His best stretches looked like a championship quarterback; his worst left Georgia without enough clean play-action explosives. Kirby Smart has cited missed vision, busted routes and busted protection. Stockton has to make the routine throws and reads more often before he has to create after the play breaks down.
Georgia must replace six of its top seven pass catchers without importing a Zachariah Branch-level target. Branch had 81 catches for 811 yards and six touchdowns, while Oscar Delp, Colbie Young, Dillon Bell and Noah Thomas combined for 89 catches, 1,141 yards and eight scores. London Humphreys averaged 15.3 yards on 18 receptions, and Georgia Tech transfer Isiah Canion caught 33 passes last season. Humphreys and Canion need to win outside, with Talyn Taylor and the younger receivers making defenses pay for crowding the run game. Arkansas on September 19 is the first hard look.
Mike Bobo enters his fourth year as coordinator after Georgia scored 32.1 points per game, rushed for 2,553 yards and held the ball for 34 minutes per game in 2025. It also finished 55th nationally in plays of 20-plus yards and had 18 fewer gains of at least 10 yards than the year before. Smart has defended Bobo’s production and team success. The line and backfield are experienced enough that the call sheet needs to produce more play-action gains.
Nate Frazier ran for 947 yards and six touchdowns at 5.5 per carry, and Chauncey Bowens added 526 yards and six scores at 5.1. Their 1,473 yards on 276 carries give Georgia a sound starting point. Dwight Phillips Jr. added 210 yards at 6.0 per carry, while Kentucky transfer Dante Dowdell entered fall camp with an uncertain status after serious injuries in an ATV accident. Georgia can spread the early carries without running Frazier down, then use the run game to pull linebackers downhill and clear throwing lanes for Stockton.
The tight ends can carry more of the passing game while the receiver order settles. Lawson Luckie had 15 catches for 158 yards and four touchdowns and takes over the every-down role vacated by Delp. Elyiss Williams averaged 16.7 yards on seven receptions; Jaden Reddell and Ethan Barbour give Georgia more options, though Barbour is returning from the significant leg injury that ended his 2025 season early. Earnest Greene III, Drew Bobo, Dontrell Glover and Juan Gaston form the experienced line base, with Greene and Bobo carrying recent injury histories. Zykie Helton and Daniel Calhoun are competing at guard, Michael Uini remains in the mix, Jahzare Jackson can play tackle, and Gaston can play right guard or right tackle.
Georgia has four experienced building blocks, but the fifth selection sets two jobs. If Helton or Calhoun wins right guard, Gaston can stay at right tackle. If Uini or Jackson earns the tackle job, Gaston can move inside. With Bobo and Greene carrying recent injury histories, Georgia needs to settle on five instead of moving bodies every week. Stockton needs enough protection to reset after play-action.
Helton or Calhoun secures guard, or Uini or Jackson secures tackle, and Gaston stays where the best five fit. Georgia can keep its combination blocks and protection timing intact.
Gaston becomes the weekly repair tool, the right side keeps changing and Bobo calls around protection instead of using the full field.
Check Gaston’s position against Tennessee State on September 5, then see whether the same five open at Arkansas on September 19. A reshuffle means the job is still open.
Heading into the opener, Georgia returns 16 of the 21 defenders who logged at least 150 snaps last season. It allowed 17.6 points per game but had 19 sacks in 14 games, while the two offenses that hit it hardest scored 24 and 39.
Defensive tackle Christen Miller, linebacker C.J. Allen and corner Daylen Everette became top-85 draft picks. Allen led Georgia with 88 tackles and 3.5 sacks, Everette had eight pass breakups and an interception return for a touchdown, and Miller supplied interior weight. The portal also took cornerbacks Dominick Kelly and Daniel Harris, safety Joenel Aguero, edge Elo Modozie, Jaden Harris and Adrian Maddox.
The front returns Xzavier McLeod and Elijah Griffin. Raylen Wilson had 74 tackles, Chris Cole had 61 tackles and a team-high 4.5 sacks, and Justin Williams had 35 tackles and four tackles for loss. KJ Bolden had 77 tackles, while Ellis Robinson IV intercepted four passes. The open safety job is beside Bolden, with Clemson transfer Khalil Barnes in the mix. Georgia also added Amaris Williams from Auburn.
Georgia allowed 1,142 rushing yards in 14 games, about 81.6 per Saturday, but managed 1.36 sacks per game. It had 58 tackles for loss, seven interceptions and 13 forced turnovers. Alabama scored 24 in the September loss, then seven in the SEC Championship Game. Ole Miss scored 35 in October and 39 in the Sugar Bowl.
The Championship Ceiling sits with the edge room. Quintavius Johnson had two sacks last season, and Chase Linton had none in limited action. New outside linebackers coach Larry Knight inherits that group, with Amaris Williams as another option and McLeod and Griffin inside. Georgia needs an edge winner, pressure without extra rushers and a safety beside Bolden who can handle the coverage when help goes elsewhere. Ole Miss, which scored 39 to end Georgia’s season, is the Nov. 7 stop.
Knight’s edge rotation gets its first live work, with Johnson and Linton among the options.
The open safety job and the rush without extra help get an early major test.
Alabama scored 24 in the September loss and seven in the SEC Championship Game last season.
Ole Miss scored 39 in the Sugar Bowl. Georgia needs to finish pressures and get off the field.
Stockton accounted for 3,356 yards and 34 touchdowns in his first full season as the starter. He handled checks and the clock through road wins at Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State and Georgia Tech, and Georgia returns 99.7 percent of its passing production. Georgia ran for 2,553 yards but left play-action explosives available; Smart cited missed vision, routes and protection. Stockton must build answers from a receiving room missing six of its top seven pass catchers before Oklahoma on September 26.
Frazier ran for 947 yards at 5.5 per carry as Georgia rushed for 2,553 yards and finished fourth in the SEC. He did it in a committee, which matters during eight straight SEC games from September 19 through November 21. Georgia needs him to pull safeties into the run fit and open throws over linebackers. Chauncey Bowens, Dwight Phillips Jr. and others can rotate, but Frazier sets the pace.
At 15.3 yards per catch, Humphreys brings Georgia’s best returning downfield yield. His 18 receptions were efficient but not weekly volume. Georgia needs him to handle primary coverage and win vertically.
Canion caught 33 passes as a sophomore and brings outside experience from Georgia Tech. Georgia added one experienced receiver instead of rebuilding through the portal. He needs to be a dependable boundary target while the young room develops.
Four of Luckie’s 15 catches became touchdowns in 2025. He steps into the every-down role Oscar Delp left behind. Georgia needs him as a middle-of-field answer while the receiver order takes shape.
Four experienced linemen return, with Bobo handling their communication. His foot injury lingered through the final weeks of 2025. Georgia needs him healthy for its play-action protection.
Robinson made four of Georgia’s seven interceptions while recording 20 tackles. Daylen Everette’s departure gives him a larger assignment. Georgia needs Robinson to hold the boundary without constant safety help.
Wilson posted 74 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Georgia allowed 81.6 rushing yards per game but must replace CJ Allen’s team-leading 88 tackles. Wilson takes over the communication work.
Johnson had 5.5 tackles for loss, three hurries and five passes defended, but only two sacks. Georgia finished with 19 sacks in 14 games. He needs to turn disruption into finished pressure.
Griffin recorded 22 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and one sack as a freshman. Georgia allowed 1,142 rushing yards in 14 games but finished with 19 sacks. His second year needs more interior pressure.
First-team All-SEC selection Greene has recent injury history, and Georgia needs his availability at tackle.
Bowens ran for 526 yards and six touchdowns at 5.1 per carry behind Frazier.
Taylor had two catches for 28 yards in 2025 as part of the young receiver group Georgia chose to develop.
Seven catches produced 117 yards and a touchdown for Williams, a 16.7-yard average.
Bolden recorded 77 tackles, five passes defended and two interceptions in a reworked safety structure.
McLeod had 17 tackles and two quarterback hurries in 2025 as part of Georgia’s front rotation.
Cole led Georgia with 4.5 sacks and added 61 tackles with seven tackles for loss.
Woodring made 17 of 19 field goals, all 54 extra points and a kick from 53.
0 NFL comparisons are needed here. The front seat, the runway, the first answer and the voice identify the jobs. Grades and Pate State ranks are preseason evaluations and will be audited in January.
33 catches from Canion join Humphreys, White-Helton and Taylor. By Oklahoma on Sept. 26, Georgia needs a clear top 3.
Helton and Calhoun are battling at right guard, and Gaston can play guard or tackle. The Sept. 5 opener gives the first look at the right side.
Barnes can line up beside Bolden or at Star, tying 2 jobs together. Watch the checks against Oklahoma's motions on Sept. 26 and at Alabama on Oct. 10.
Johnson had 2 sacks in 2025, while Georgia had 19 in 14 games. Linton's spring needs to carry into 4-man pressure before Alabama on Oct. 10.
Frazier, Bowens and Stockton had 1,935 rushing yards in 2025, while 6 of the top 7 pass catchers left. Defenses can live with isolated throws until Humphreys, Canion or a young receiver wins outside.
Georgia finished 4th in the SEC in rushing but lost 18 plays of 10-plus yards from the previous season. Smart pointed to vision, routes and protection on missed play-action chances; opponents will cloud Stockton's first read.
Stockton turned 129 carries into 462 yards and 10 touchdowns. Keep him inside and make the rebuilt receiving corps win third down.
Bolden is fixed, while the other safety spot and Star are tied to Barnes' placement. Fast offenses will force the secondary to declare its checks and find the defender still settling in.
Heading into the Sept. 5 opener, Georgia faces 2 early stress windows: Arkansas through Alabama, then Florida through Ole Miss. Tennessee State and Western Kentucky lead to Arkansas on Sept. 19, Oklahoma on Sept. 26, Vanderbilt on Oct. 3 and Alabama on Oct. 10. Auburn follows before the only bye on Oct. 24. Florida in Atlanta and Ole Miss in Oxford begin the second window, then Missouri, South Carolina and Georgia Tech close the regular season without another break. Receiver play and pass rush have to improve before those 2 windows.
On Sept. 5, Georgia can set its receiver rotation and get Gunner Stockton out clean.
Sept. 12 is the final low-leverage Saturday before 3 SEC games and Oklahoma in 4 weeks.
On Sept. 19, Georgia takes its first road trip against a new staff and roster with continuity at quarterback and running back.
Oklahoma brings 14 starters and 97 combined offensive-line starts on Sept. 26, when Georgia’s new receiver order gets its first full audit.
On Oct. 3, Georgia needs health more than style points between Oklahoma and Alabama.
On Oct. 10, Tuscaloosa exposes unresolved protection and receiver-spacing problems.
On Oct. 17, Georgia’s run game can reset the game after Alabama.
Oct. 24 is Georgia’s only open week, placed before Florida and Ole Miss.
On Oct. 31, Georgia’s defensive experience carries the rivalry possessions in Atlanta.
On Nov. 7, Georgia must limit explosives in the Sugar Bowl rematch at Ole Miss.
On Nov. 14, Missouri’s backfield tests the front, but Georgia has the deeper fourth quarter.
On Nov. 21, LaNorris Sellers and a late-November road setting make South Carolina dangerous.
Last year’s 16–9 result keeps Georgia Tech from being overlooked on Nov. 28.
Oklahoma brings 14 returning starters, and Georgia needs play-action explosives without Stockton rescuing the structure.
On Oct. 10, Georgia takes its loss as a young receiver hierarchy and protection face their hardest road test.
The Oct. 24 open week gives Georgia 7 days to reset before Florida and Oxford.
Ole Miss scored 39 in the quarterfinal that ended Georgia’s season; holding the rematch below 30 supports this pick.
Georgia returns 99.7 percent of its passing production and 99.3 percent of its rushing production, against 34.7 percent of its receiving production. Stockton, Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens stabilize the offense; the new target order has to carry Georgia to a championship.
Georgia has London Humphreys, Isiah Canion, Talyn Taylor, Lawson Luckie and a deep tight end room, but no returning 81-catch target after Zachariah Branch left. Georgia ranked 55th nationally in plays of 20-plus yards and produced 18 fewer plays of at least 10 yards despite rising to fourth in the SEC in rushing.
Tennessee State, Western Kentucky and Arkansas precede Oklahoma on Sept. 26. By the fourth game, the receiver rotation and play-action protection must be settled enough for Oklahoma’s 14 returning starters.
Georgia allowed 17.6 points and 1,142 rushing yards across 14 games, with Raylen Wilson, Chris Cole, KJ Bolden and Ellis Robinson IV back. It also recorded 19 sacks and 7 interceptions, which leaves too many passing downs on coverage.
Georgia’s only open week falls on Oct. 24, after Alabama and Auburn and before Florida and Ole Miss. At 6–1, Georgia can use it to repair the offensive line and receiver rotation before the schedule’s 9.1/10 stress stretch.
Georgia produced 18 fewer plays of at least 10 yards in 2025 while the run game improved. Play-action needs vision, routes and protection on Sept. 26.
Nineteen sacks in 14 games left too many passing downs on coverage. Chris Cole had 4.5 sacks, while Quintavius Johnson had 2.0 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries.
Georgia committed 13 turnovers and forced 13. Its 12–2 team controlled the ball for 34 minutes per game and converted 15 of 20 fourth downs without a turnover edge.
Peyton Woodring made 89.5 percent of his field goals, hit from 53 yards and made all 54 extra points. That matters in the one-score games on this projection.
Georgia is No. 1 on my board, while the Pate State Model has Ohio State No. 1 and identifies the Buckeyes as the most likely champion. The model has its argument; Georgia returns a steadier group at quarterback, running back and across an experienced defense, with time for the unsettled pieces.
On Sept. 26, Georgia’s bet on its target group gets tested by Oklahoma. Isiah Canion joins London Humphreys, Talyn Taylor, the young receivers and a deep tight end room after Zachariah Branch left. At least 2 targets must stretch defenses, and play-action protection has to hold.
The 2025 defense allowed 17.6 points per game and 1,142 rushing yards, but it had 19 sacks and 7 interceptions. The Ole Miss loss made the cost clear: Georgia scored 34 and went home. The pass rush has to change elimination-game downs.
On Oct. 10, Georgia loses at Alabama, uses the Oct. 24 bye and wins at Ole Miss on Nov. 7. That puts Georgia at 11–1, with another SEC championship and the No. 1 playoff seed. Its 34-minute possession profile gives it a way to manage hard Saturdays while the passing game develops.
Georgia wins the national championship, 31–28 over Ohio State. The pick fails if 34.7 percent returning receiving production remains a problem, offensive-line health blocks play-action, or a 19-sack defense still needs blitzes in December. Georgia has the quarterback, run game, defensive experience and schedule shape for this pick. — JP
Every section was checked against the fact pack and the sources. Claims below were not supported or were contradicted by them; in a published annual each would be verified or cut.