Texas has enough to win the SEC. Heading into the opener, Texas brings back 72.1% of its production but replaces the four backs behind 1,794 rushing yards in 13 games. Manning and Colin Simmons set the Championship Ceiling. The new backfield and interior line face Ohio State on Sept. 12.
Texas went 10–3 in 2025, scoring 35.8 points per game in its 10 wins and 12.7 in its three losses. Heading into the opener, Arch Manning’s second year is the easy story. The 23.1-point split is why Texas rebuilt through the portal and has a top-five ranking to answer for.
The losses came early and late. Texas opened August 30 with a 14–7 loss at Ohio State, scoring one touchdown with a first-year starting quarterback. Florida won 29–21 on October 4. Georgia finished the run on November 16, 35–10. Texas scored 38 points in the three losses, never reaching 22 or its 30.5-point season average.
Georgia made the run-game problem plain. Texas had 1,794 rushing yards in 13 games, 4.2 per carry and five games below 100 rushing yards. Manning had 399 rushing yards and 10 of the team’s 17 rushing touchdowns. He helped Texas escape Kentucky 16–13 and Vanderbilt 34–31, but the quarterback carried too much of the short-yardage load.
Texas still beat Oklahoma 23–6, Texas A&M 27–17 and Michigan 41–27. The defense had 39 sacks, 82 tackles for loss and 23 takeaways. The offense gained 5,053 yards, but Texas also threw 16 interceptions, took 108 penalties for 906 yards and held the ball for 28 minutes per game.
The offseason changed the roster fast. Six Longhorns were drafted, including Anthony Hill Jr. at No. 60, Malik Muhammad at No. 124, Trey Moore at No. 130 and Michael Taaffe at No. 158. Twenty-seven players entered the portal, including four backs who produced 1,181 rushing yards and receivers Parker Livingstone and DeAndre Moore Jr., who combined for 1,048 yards and 10 touchdowns. Texas signed 22 transfers, adding Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers at running back; Cam Coleman and Sterling Berkhalter at receiver; and Melvin Siani, Laurence Seymore III, Dylan Sikorski and Paris Patterson on the offensive line.
Manning returns after 3,163 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, and Ryan Wingo returns after 834 receiving yards and seven scores. Trevor Goosby is back at left tackle. Colin Simmons returns after 12 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp inherits Simmons, Jelani McDonald, Graceson Littleton and a deeper front, then adds Rasheem Biles, Bo Mascoe, Ian Geffrard and Zion Williams. Brown and Smothers need to give Texas a steadier run game behind a remodeled interior. Ohio State on September 12 is the first look.
Verified offensive returning-starter figure: six.
Arch Manning’s 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, seven interceptions and 61.4 percent completion rate set a solid baseline, but Texas averaged 35.8 points in 10 wins and 12.7 in three losses. Better rushing, steadier interior protection and a new skill group have to close that gap before the schedule accelerates.
Heading into the Sept. 5 opener against Texas State, Manning is the certainty in an offense returning six starters. He averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his first full season as the starter and added 399 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns. When the run game stalled, Texas had too many obvious passing downs.
Manning has to handle more before the snap in his second season. Manning needs to identify leverage, set protection and punish rotations without waiting for a clean picture.
Texas rushed for 1,794 yards and averaged 138.0 per game. After the first fall scrimmage, Sarkisian said the staff had been “harping on physicality” and running the ball, then praised the first offensive-line unit for its protection and continuity. Texas can’t leave both safeties available for the pass on third down.
The backfield was rebuilt after Quintrevion Wisner, CJ Baxter Jr., Jerrick Gibson and Christian Clark transferred. Raleek Brown arrived after surpassing 1,000 yards at Arizona State while averaging 6.1 per carry, and Hollywood Smothers produced four 100-yard games at NC State. Freshman Derrek Cooper is pushing for work.
Cam Coleman gives Texas an X receiver, Ryan Wingo returns after 54 catches for 834 yards and seven touchdowns, and Emmett Mosley V brings 28 catches for 408 yards into the slot. Tight end is less settled after Jack Endries’ departure. Michael Masunas brought portal experience, while 6-foot-7, 260-pound Spencer Shannon has pushed the competition in camp and gives Manning a red-zone target.
The line has shape elsewhere: Trevor Goosby at left tackle, Brandon Baker at left guard and Melvin Siani at right tackle. Seymore has more than 1,300 career snaps, Chatman received first-team work, Dylan Sikorski started at Oregon State and Cole Hutson returned with 23 career starts after a court ruling. One player needs to take the job. Weekly changes would disrupt outside-zone timing and the middle of Manning’s pocket.
One left guard claims the job, Baker stays inside, Siani settles at right tackle and Texas improves on 138.0 rushing yards per game while protecting Manning as it did in a 23-sack season.
The staff keeps changing combinations, interior games create pressure and Manning again carries third-and-long. The skill group spends too many snaps waiting on protection.
Track the starting five Saturday against Texas State, then watch that group against Ohio State on Sept. 12: yards before contact between the tackles, interior pressures and third-and-seven or longer.
Texas returns 12 of the 39 sacks it produced in 2025 through Colin Simmons, but four drafted defenders leave a defense that allowed 20.3 points per game.
The 2025 defense allowed 20.3 points and 338.8 yards per game, held opponents to 64 conversions on 194 third downs and forced 23 turnovers. It gave up 29 at Florida and 35 at Georgia, the two regular-season games in which an opponent reached 29. Texas generated 39 sacks while allowing 23 and recorded seven interceptions. In three losses, Texas allowed 26.0 points per game while the offense scored 12.7. The defense had flaws, but it did not carry those losses alone.
Anthony Hill Jr., Malik Muhammad, Trey Moore and Michael Taaffe combined for 204 tackles and 8.5 sacks before they were drafted. The portal also took Liona Lefau, Ty’Anthony Smith, Kobe Black, Warren Roberson, Derek Williams Jr., Elijah Barnes, Caleb Chester and Lavon Johnson. Simmons returns with 12 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss and 15 quarterback hurries. Jelani McDonald led the team with 80 tackles, Graceson Littleton broke up six passes, and Hero Kanu, Alex January and Maraad Watson return interior snaps and size. Lance Jackson and Zina Umeozulu give Will Muschamp options opposite Simmons as he moves him around the front.
Texas added eight defenders from the portal, including Rasheem Biles, Bo Mascoe, Justin Cryer, Ian Geffrard and Zion Williams. Darius Snow, Markus Boswell and Nick Hudson add experience. Camp reporting has Mascoe emerging as a likely outside starter, and Steve Sarkisian has praised Cryer’s physicality and preparation. Geffrard holding the point at nose would free Biles and the linebackers while Simmons moves across the formation. Littleton can work in the slot, and McDonald has range, but the group must exchange calls correctly under tempo.
Cryer and Biles must replace the communication and production lost with Hill, Mascoe must handle a starting corner assignment, and McDonald must organize the back end while keeping his versatility. Sept. 12 against Ohio State brings motions, protection checks and third-and-medium. Nov. 14 at LSU is the tenth game. By then, the transition has to be settled.
Alignment and clean substitutions matter more than final yardage.
Simmons moves, the new corners work, and third-and-medium tests the calls without coverage busts.
The front, linebackers and safeties take one call system away from Austin.
In the tenth game, the rebuilt defense communicates as one unit.
Manning accounted for 36 of Texas’s 45 passing and rushing touchdowns as the starter, including 10 on the ground, while Texas went 10-3 and averaged 30.5 points. His 7.8 yards per attempt and 61.4 percent completion rate won 10 games, but Texas scored 10 at Georgia, 16 at Kentucky and seven at Ohio State. With 85.4 percent of the passing production back and Cam Coleman joining Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V, Manning has more answers around him. He has to get to the right one faster when protection changes and the first read disappears.
Simmons produced 12 of Texas’s 39 sacks and nearly one-fifth of its 82 tackles for loss. Texas lost four defensive draft picks, including Anthony Hill Jr. and Trey Moore, so Will Muschamp plans to move Simmons before the snap. That can force the center’s call, pull a back into protection and create one-on-ones for Lance Jackson, Zina Umeozulu or an interior rusher. Texas needs the rest of the front to finish those chances.
The stake: Texas returns only 55.0 percent of its receiving production after losing Parker Livingstone and DeAndre Moore Jr. Coleman gives Texas an outside X receiver with the frame to pull coverage from Ryan Wingo. He has to absorb Steve Sarkisian’s timing and adjustment work quickly enough to become a dependable first read.
Strength: Wingo posted 834 yards, seven touchdowns and 15.4 yards per catch as Manning’s leading receiver. Coleman’s arrival can give Wingo cleaner matchups, but Texas needs him involved early as it works in new receivers, backs and tight ends.
The stake: Texas averaged 138 rushing yards and allowed 23 sacks in 2025, with four other line spots settling around transfers and position changes. Goosby is Manning’s established blindside protector. Moving Brandon Baker inside and installing Melvin Siani at right tackle works only if the new right side communicates and the interior stops penetration without help from Goosby’s edge.
Texas lost its top four listed 2025 rushers from the running-back room, and Manning led the team with 10 rushing touchdowns. Brown needs to supply yards and short-yardage work while sharing carries with Hollywood Smothers and younger backs.
Strength: McDonald made 80 tackles, 49 solo, to lead the listed Texas defenders. Texas can move him across the secondary, but Michael Taaffe was drafted and safety roles remained contested in camp. McDonald has to keep a reshaped back end connected.
He can cover the slot, work in the middle or move outside. Texas needs him to handle the run fits and communication near the formation.
The stake: Texas allowed only 1,351 rushing yards last season and now replaces second-round pick Anthony Hill Jr. He has to learn the new fits and produce before November beside a still-forming middle-linebacker rotation.
Strength: Kanu had 31 tackles, four tackles for loss, two sacks and four quarterback hurries in 2025. Texas needs him and the tackle rotation to hold up while Simmons moves around the front. If Kanu, Alex January, Maraad Watson and the newcomers control the A-gaps, the linebackers can run.
Four 100-yard games and six games with at least 15 carries in 2025 make Smothers a workload counterweight to Brown.
Mosley caught 28 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns, and his slot work matters while Coleman settles outside.
At 6-7 and 260 pounds, Shannon gives Manning a large red-zone target with in-system experience.
Siani is one half of Texas moving Brandon Baker inside after the Wake Forest transfer worked at right tackle.
Jackson had two sacks in limited 2025 work and enters as the likely edge starter opposite Simmons.
Cryer is one Florida State transfer who could settle the middle after late linebacker turnover.
Mascoe is one Rutgers transfer who emerged in the offseason at the outside corner spot Texas needed after Malik Muhammad’s departure.
No NFL comparison appears in this section. Role language — The trigger, The disruptor, The voice, The connector — carries the scouting meaning without using the annual’s comparison allowance.
Seymore has more than 1,300 career snaps, while Hutson has 23 starts. Chatman took first-team work, and Texas needs one five-man line settled by Ohio State on Sept. 12.
Brown topped 1,000 yards at 6.1 per carry in 2025, while Smothers had four 100-yard games. The committee has to improve a run game that stayed below 100 yards five times last season.
McDonald is set, but Filsaime leads an unsettled race for the other safety job. Watch the tackling angles against Ohio State on Sept. 12 and Tennessee on Sept. 26.
Shipley made 20 of 24 field goals in 2025. New starters at kicker, punter and long snapper put operation time and coverage under watch in September.
The tackles are the strength, so defenses can attack left guard, test Baker’s move inside and make Manning reset before Coleman and Wingo get downfield.
Brown and Smothers arrived to repair the run game. Opponents can threaten pressure after the check and force the rebuilt backfield to find the extra rusher.
Simmons produced 12 of Texas’ 39 sacks last season. Slides and tight-end help put Jackson, Spence and Umeozulu in isolated rushes before the quarterback’s first answer opens.
Biles and Cryer are newcomers, Filsaime is being pushed, and Muschamp wants multiplicity. Offenses can hurry the communication, move Littleton and test the linebacker-safety exchange.
Texas gets 2 September tests in 15 days: Ohio State comes to Austin on Sept. 12, then Tennessee gets Texas at noon on Sept. 26. The Oct. 3 open date follows. Oklahoma starts a 4-game October run, with 3 straight home games after the rivalry. The bill comes in the final 21 days: at Missouri, at LSU and at Texas A&M, with Arkansas at home between the trips. I have Texas beating Ohio State, leaving October unbeaten and taking 2 November losses as the rebuilt backfield, reworked offensive line and defensive replacements go on the road.
One game gives the offensive line and rebuilt backfield live work without a fourth-quarter problem.
Texas gets Ohio State in Austin in Week 2, with Arch Manning, Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman facing a rebuilt defense.
One week after Ohio State, Texas has to avoid a flat half before Tennessee.
A noon road start puts the new offensive line under pressure, but Texas has the edge rush and quarterback stability to leave 4-0.
The open date follows 2 September heavyweights and precedes Oklahoma.
Texas won 23-6 last season and brings the more proven quarterback into the rematch.
Last season's 29-21 loss is the reference point; Manning has more experience, and this one is in Austin.
Three games after the bye, Colin Simmons can move around and force protection calls.
Texas allowed 38 points in Starkville last year; this rematch comes before the November road run.
One road game before LSU gives Texas a talent edge and a look-ahead problem.
The middle trip of 3 November road games is where the interior run game costs Texas a possession.
Texas allowed 37 points in this matchup last season, but Arkansas comes to Austin after LSU.
Friday night, a short week and a third road game in 21 days bring the second loss.
Week 2 gives Texas its quarterback and home-field edge against an Ohio State defense still building communication.
A noon road game puts the interior pocket and first-down run rate under pressure behind a reworked line.
The second of 3 late road trips demands manageable third downs without making Manning the whole rushing plan.
A short week and the third November road game put depth and the kicking operation in focus.
Manning returns with 3,163 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 85.4 percent of Texas' passing production. Texas returns 6 offensive starters but only 55.0 percent of its receiving production after Parker Livingstone and DeAndre Moore Jr. transferred and Jack Endries was drafted. Cam Coleman changes the talent level, but the receiver timing still has to be built.
Texas asks Wake Forest transfer Melvin Siani to play right tackle while Brandon Baker moves inside, Trevor Goosby anchors the left side and the guards remain unsettled. Ohio State on Sept. 12 brings the first look at Siani against SEC edge speed and the interior run surface.
Four transfers accounted for 1,181 rushing yards in 2025: Quintrevion Wisner, CJ Baxter Jr., Jerrick Gibson and Christian Clark. Raleek Brown surpassed 1,000 yards at 6.1 per carry, and Hollywood Smothers had 4 100-yard games. Outside-zone potential has to hold up in SEC short yardage.
Colin Simmons had 12 of Texas' 39 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss last season. Six Longhorns were drafted, including Anthony Hill Jr., Malik Muhammad, Trey Moore and Michael Taaffe, so the linebacker and secondary communication still need answers.
Texas took 108 penalties for 906 yards while averaging 28 minutes of possession per game. The defense forced 23 turnovers, but November leaves little room for pre-snap flags, lost field position and extended drives.
Texas ran for 1,794 yards in 13 games, about 138 per game, and stayed below 100 rushing yards 5 times. Manning led the team with 10 rushing touchdowns, putting too much short-yardage work on the quarterback.
Texas allowed 23 sacks in 2025. Ohio State, Tennessee and the November road run test a reworked right side and the guard-center-guard triangle.
Texas gave up 906 yards on 108 penalties, an average of 8.3 flags and nearly 70 penalty yards per game. That yardage travels into one-possession road games.
Mason Shipley made 20 of 24 field goals, hit from 53 yards and made all 48 extra points. Gianni Spetic inherits an 83.3 percent field-goal operation before the November road games.
I have Texas at 10-2, in the SEC title game and hosting as the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff. I have Texas beating Ohio State on Sept. 12 because Manning is in year 2 as the starter, the game is in Austin and Wingo, Coleman and the quarterback run element get a rebuilt defense early.
Texas has a 985.17 talent composite, 72.1 percent overall returning production and its returning quarterback. It has 55.0 percent of its receiving production back, a remade backfield and an offensive line changing multiple jobs.
Texas averaged about 138 rushing yards, stayed below 100 5 times and leaned on Manning in short yardage. Brown and Smothers bring proven explosiveness, but Siani at right tackle and Baker inside remain the personnel bet. Ohio State starts the grading; Tennessee on Sept. 26 brings the fuller answer.
Simmons returns with 12 sacks, but 4 of the 6 drafted Longhorns named here were Hill, Muhammad, Moore and Taaffe. Three November road games pressure a reconstructed secondary and its communication.
The floor is 8-4 and outside the playoff if the line reshuffle fails, the new backs can't create dependable early-down production and the secondary remains unsettled. The Championship Ceiling is a 12-0 regular season and a CFP semifinal run if the right side holds, Coleman makes bracket coverage expensive and the defense rushes 4 without exposing its rebuilt middle. I land at 10-2 because LSU and Texas A&M collect the late schedule tax. — JP
Every section was checked against the fact pack and the sources. Claims below were not supported or were contradicted by them; in a published annual each would be verified or cut.