Ohio State is 6-2, and the last picture it put on tape was an 18–30 loss at USC on October 31. I’m still picking the Buckeyes to beat Oregon by about 10 points.

Ohio State created enough of its own problems at USC — mistakes and red-zone failures among them — that the loss doesn’t require me to downgrade the entire team to what it looked like for one night. I still believe Ohio State has the better team.

Oregon’s counterargument deserves more respect than its 5-3 record gets it. The Ducks went into the same stadium on September 26 and beat USC 41–27. Five weeks later, Ohio State went there and lost by 12. That gives Oregon a much stronger upset case than merely pointing to a good offensive afternoon against Northwestern.

I’m not handing the game to Oregon through the Transitive Property Department. Oregon also lost 21–10 at Illinois on October 24, while Ohio State won 42–19 against Illinois on September 26. Those two games show how much can change week to week.

The larger body of work still favors Ohio State. Its other loss was 24–23 at Texas on September 12. Oregon’s three losses have come against Oklahoma State, UCLA and Illinois. The Ducks followed the Illinois loss with a 34–26 win over Northwestern on October 31, their first game with the new offensive coordinator.

Oregon has to create pressure without letting Jeremiah Smith decide the game on isolated opportunities. Smith doesn’t have to be erased. Oregon just can’t let him decide the game. Ohio State hasn’t been punishing opponents on the ground, and the passing game beyond Smith hasn’t produced another standout target. Oregon needs to affect the quarterback, tilt coverage toward Smith and force somebody else to repeatedly win.

Ohio State should stop Oregon’s running game. Put the Ducks behind the chains, reduce the number of comfortable throws available to Dylan Raiola and make that 34-point performance against Northwestern harder to reproduce on the road. Raiola made several high-level throws in that win. The question in Columbus is how many he gets to attempt from a settled pocket.

An early Oregon lead would put every Ohio State mistake from USC back into the building. The danger for the Buckeyes is that the same red-zone failures and self-inflicted damage survive another Saturday. Oregon has already won at USC and has no reason to enter Columbus impressed by the setting.

I’m trusting Ohio State to correct the controllable problems, stop Oregon’s run and win by about 10. If Oregon wins November 7, I underestimated the USC comparison.

— JP