Missouri’s 2025 win over Mississippi State came with a 326-110 rushing advantage, and I still think six and a half points is too many.
Ahmad Hardy ran for about 300 yards in Missouri’s 49-27 win over Mississippi State in 2025. The Tigers finished with a 326-110 rushing advantage. Hardy won’t play Saturday, Sept. 26, so that result can’t simply be carried into 2026. Missouri’s quickest route to controlling this game runs through its tailbacks, especially Jamal Roberts.
“I am taking Missouri plus 6 and a half.”— Josh Pate
“I am taking Missouri plus 6 and a half.”
Roberts has 300 yards on 63 carries through three games. Mississippi State’s run defense ranks 35th nationally, and Missouri hasn’t used Austin Simmons much as a runner. Roberts has to keep Missouri out of long-yardage situations, and the offensive line has to prevent Mississippi State from making Simmons carry the night on obvious passing downs.
Simmons can throw for 300 yards when he’s on, and the Tigers have enough at receiver to punish loaded boxes. Mississippi State has to defend Roberts between the tackles without giving Simmons easy access to explosive throws outside.
Mississippi State beat UL Monroe 62-13, went to Minnesota and won 38-13, then won 41-34 at South Carolina. Missouri beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14, Kansas 38-21 and Troy 27-17. State has faced the better early schedule and has twice won away from home.
Missouri entered 2026 after an 8-5 season and a 4-4 SEC record. Mississippi State came off 5-8 overall and 1-7 in the league. The Bulldogs have done more to change the conversation through three games, but they’re also being asked to reproduce their best football after consecutive road wins.
Mississippi State has played Minnesota and South Carolina, with Alabama next on Oct. 3. Teams can handle that stretch. The concern is whether the tackling, red-zone resistance and emotional edge from South Carolina carry into a third straight high-profile game.
Missouri’s offense ranks in the hundreds in red-zone touchdown rate, while Mississippi State’s defense ranks 10th. State is also 22nd nationally on defense on third down; Missouri is 78th on offense.
South Carolina reached scoring territory against Mississippi State and settled for field goals when touchdowns could have changed the game. State earned those stops. Missouri has to finish red-zone trips with touchdowns. A 14-3 Missouri lead after two red-zone touchdowns changes the play-calling, gives Roberts more carries and forces the Bulldogs to chase explosive plays rather than choose them.
The model makes Mississippi State only a two-point favorite. The market spread is six and a half. I’m siding with the narrower margin because Missouri can run it well enough to shorten the game and throw it well enough to erase a mistake.
I lean Mississippi State outright, but Missouri can keep it within seven. Missouri needs Roberts to keep the offense on schedule and two early red-zone trips to end with seven instead of three.
— JP
CONTINUED FROM THE NOTEBOOK
USC faces Oregon with late-down defense exposed
Rutgers converted nine of 15 third- and fourth-down tries as USC enters Saturday's Oregon game with key availability questions.
What Happened
No. 12 USC hosts Oregon on Saturday, Sept. 26, needing to clean up the late-down defense and special teams mistakes exposed in its 42-35 win at Rutgers on Sept. 19 while sorting out key injuries before the Ducks arrive.
Rutgers threw for 292 yards and converted six of 11 third downs and three of four fourth downs against the Trojans. Oregon brings quarterback Dante Moore to a USC defense that could be without or limited in the secondary and on the line.
The matchup puts USC's 4-0 start and early College Football Playoff path under pressure. The Trojans have lost both meetings with Oregon under Lincoln Riley and eight of the past 10 in the series.
Riley said Tuesday that the issue against Rutgers was not simply generating pressure.
“As a secondary, we've got to be a little bit tighter in those situations. We've got to make those competitive plays,” Riley said. “We have a good defensive line. We have a group that can rush the passer. We've got to make guys hold onto that ball, make our pass rush work and make those plays when we get to the point of attack.”
Why This One Matters
USC has won its first four games, but Rutgers turned nine of 15 third- and fourth-down attempts into conversions in a one-score game. Oregon is 2-1, and a USC loss would both complicate the Trojans' CFP route and extend Riley's losing streak against the Ducks.
The special-teams warning carries over from both directions. Rutgers converted a fake fourth-and-21 punt for 44 yards on a drive that ended in a touchdown and cut USC's lead to three points before halftime. Last season's Oregon game also turned on special teams, Riley said.
“The special teams play last year (against Oregon) really turned the game. The one the other day did too,” Riley said. “In these big games, when you've got two really good teams going at it, it always feels like there's a couple of just really, really impactful special teams plays.”
That becomes harder if the Trojans are short-handed. Safety Alex Graham is questionable after appearing to be injured at Rutgers. Cornerback Jontez Williams was omitted from USC's initial availability report Wednesday, leaving his status unclear after he said Tuesday that he was ready to play.
Defensive tackle Jahkeem Stewart is also questionable after missing USC's first four games with a foot injury. Riley said Tuesday that Stewart was improving.
Next Man Up
USC could also be thin at receiver and in the return game. Trent Mosley is doubtful after missing Rutgers with a knee issue, and Corey Simms is out.
Mosley opened his USC career with 13 catches for 255 yards, four receiving touchdowns and a punt-return touchdown in three games. Simms caught at least two passes in each of USC's first four games, totaled nearly 200 yards and scored against Rutgers.
Cornerback Prophet Brown delivered an interception return for a touchdown against Rutgers. With Graham questionable and Williams' status unresolved, the remaining defensive backs could carry more of the late-down burden.
What the Coaches Can Actually Change
USC has to make the coverage plays Riley described and avoid another punt-game mistake. Rutgers' fake punt and last season's special-teams swing against Oregon make those moments more than a side concern.
The Trojans do not need to remake a 4-0 team before Saturday. They need their secondary to make Oregon finish drives on more than one snap.
The Pate State Read
Rutgers gave USC a warning without handing it a loss. Oregon is the first chance to find out whether the Trojans can get off the field when the down and distance demand it.
What to Watch Next
Watch USC's availability list for Graham, Williams, Mosley and Stewart, then watch where Oregon attacks if Graham or Williams is unavailable. On the field, track Oregon's third- and fourth-down conversions against Rutgers' nine in 15 tries, and watch every punt after special teams swung both the Sept. 19 Rutgers game and USC's last meeting with Oregon.
“Great defenses find a way to get off the field on third and fourth down,” Brown said. “Going into this game, it's definitely going to be a big indicator on how it's going to go, how we do on third and fourth down.”
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