Why I think Nebraska keeps Indiana close
Nebraska has handled the credible teams it has been given, but Indiana presents a different weight class.
The Pate StateNebraska’s case against Indiana starts with two numbers that cannot both stay comfortable for long: the Cornhuskers rank 17th nationally in rushing yards per game, and Indiana ranks fourth against the run. I think Nebraska can make that collision uncomfortable enough to keep Saturday close, but Indiana wins.
Indiana went 16-0 in 2025. Nebraska went 7-6, including 4-5 in the Big Ten. Indiana began 2026 ranked seventh in the AP poll and fifth in the coaches poll, while Nebraska entered another season trying to prove a good start could survive contact with a ranked opponent. Matt Rhule is 0-9 against ranked teams at Nebraska.
Nebraska beat Ohio 49-21, went to Michigan State and won 31-13, then beat Maryland 48-23 on Oct. 3. Those aren’t narrow escapes padded by the three lesser opponents on the schedule. Nebraska has handled the credible teams it has been given.
The question is whether the rushing numbers travel into a different weight class. The best run defenses Nebraska has faced rank 66th, 77th, 78th and 136th. Indiana is fourth and may be better than that ranking. Anthony Colandrea has rushed for 174 yards in two Big Ten games. His involvement can keep Indiana from treating this as a conventional handoff game, but Nebraska still has to move bodies against a front unlike any it has seen.
Indiana gets to ask the same question in reverse. Nebraska improved from 100th against the run last season to 30th this season, but the Power Four rushing offenses it has faced rank 89th or worse. Of the 14 FBS players with at least 500 rushing yards, Indiana has two. Nebraska cannot win that matchup by merely being improved from 2025.
Josh Hoover is the lever that could keep Nebraska in the game. He has thrown 15 touchdown passes without an interception, so the preseason concerns about risk and inconsistency have not shown up in the box score. Indiana’s only one-possession game was a 29-23 win over Northwestern on Sept. 25, and that was also Hoover’s highest-volume passing game.
Nebraska needs more Hoover attempts, more snaps on which its pass rush has a chance to affect him and fewer easy possessions created by its own mistakes. Indiana hasn’t trailed this season, and Nebraska has not shown it can calmly chase a game after giving away an early lead.
The most dangerous mismatch may not involve either line. Nebraska committed 16 penalties against Maryland and ranks 119th nationally in that category. Indiana ranks second. Nebraska survived those mistakes in a 25-point win, but Indiana is not Maryland. A holding call that erases a Colandrea run or a defensive penalty that extends a Hoover possession can wipe out the advantage Nebraska gets from playing at home against an Indiana team making its second consecutive road trip.
Nebraska’s path: run well enough to keep the full playbook available, make Hoover labor and stop donating yards. None has been established against an opponent with Indiana’s 21-game winning streak across two seasons.
The market number was Indiana by 7.5. My pick for Saturday, Oct. 10 at noon ET is Nebraska plus 7.5 points, though Indiana wins a one-possession game.
— JP