Kansas State · Big 12Avery Johnson Becomes Kansas State’s Real Bowl Projection Swing Factor
Kansas State is projected to reach the Armed Forces Bowl against Memphis, but the matchup matters less than the quarterback question underneath it. Collin Klein inherits a roster with major losses and a familiar reclamation project in Avery Johnson.
AUG 21, 2026
The year Kansas State began its current run of bowl eligibility.
Passing yards Avery Johnson produced in his sophomore season.
Interceptions Johnson threw during that sophomore season.
01 · The NewsWhat Happened
Kansas State has been projected to face Memphis in the Armed Forces Bowl. The projection is an early preseason forecast, not an official bowl assignment. The Wildcats have reached a bowl every season since 2020, and the projection places them among the top five teams in the conference despite major roster losses on both sides of the ball. Collin Klein is set to lead the program after returning to a place where he won championships as a quarterback in 2012 and as offensive coordinator in 2022. The central football question is Avery Johnson. He threw for 2,712 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in his sophomore season, then declined in nearly every major category last year.
02 · The StakesWhy This One Matters
The Armed Forces Bowl label is the least important part of this news. The real question is whether Kansas State can turn a familiar coaching hire into a better version of its quarterback. Johnson’s sophomore season had enough production to keep the ceiling alive, including 605 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, but the Wildcats lost three of their final four games. His passing efficiency fell apart in key moments, and the downfield passing and designed quarterback run game never consistently showed up. Klein knows the player and the program. That gives Kansas State a better starting point than a first-time outsider would have had. It doesn’t erase the roster losses or the need for Johnson to play with more force.
03 · The Detail Beneath the HeadlineWhat Most People Are Missing
Most of the attention will land on the projected opponent. That misses the roster problem underneath it. Kansas State lost major pieces on offense and defense, so the team may have less room for an uneven quarterback season than it had before. A quarterback who merely avoids disaster won’t necessarily replace the production that left. Johnson has to restore the part of the offense that made him dangerous in the first place. That means pushing the ball downfield and making defenses account for him as a runner. The projection says bowl quality is possible. It doesn’t say the old version of Johnson is coming back automatically.
“The name on the sideline helps because Collin Klein already knows the program and has coached Johnson before.”
The Wire Desk04 · The PersonnelWhat the Projection Actually Says
This projection is a forecast of Kansas State’s floor, not a schedule result. The Wildcats have made a bowl every season since 2020, which gives the prediction some historical support. The less stable part is the roster. Major losses on both sides of the ball make a top-five conference finish an aggressive projection for a coach in Year 1, even one with deep ties to the program. Collin Klein’s background helps. He has won championships at Kansas State in two different roles, and his recent work as Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator gives him experience running an offense outside Manhattan. Still, the projection depends on more than familiarity. If Johnson returns to the dual-threat form the offense was built around, Kansas State can make the forecast look reasonable. If the downfield passing remains limited, the same roster losses become much louder. The first real test is whether the offense gives Johnson enough designed movement to make defenses defend every blade of grass.
05 · The ChessboardWhat the Coaches Can Actually Change
The likeliest offensive levers are built around Johnson’s legs and the space in front of him. Kansas State can use more designed quarterback runs, read-option looks and movement throws to simplify the first read. Those calls would force the defense to account for Johnson before it can sit on the passing game. The tradeoff is obvious. More quarterback runs create a heavier workload and ask the offense to protect a player it needs for the full season. Klein could also use shorter throws early, then test whether defenses widen enough for deeper shots. That is a projection, not a confirmed plan. The matchup to watch is the defense’s box count. If opponents keep an extra defender inside, Kansas State needs answers outside. If they spread out, Johnson needs to punish the lighter box with his legs.
06 · The ThesisThe Pate State Read
The bowl projection is reasonable only if Avery Johnson becomes the reason Kansas State is hard to defend again. The name on the sideline helps because Collin Klein already knows the program and has coached Johnson before. That’s a real advantage. It isn’t a magic reset button. Johnson’s last season showed the cost of an offense that couldn’t threaten defenses vertically or with the quarterback run. Add major losses on both sides, and Kansas State needs more certainty from its most important position. The counterweight is that Johnson has already shown the physical tools. His 605 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns in his sophomore season weren’t imaginary. The task is to connect that running threat with cleaner decisions and more downfield aggression. If that happens, the projection can rise quickly. If it doesn’t, the Armed Forces Bowl may be closer to the ceiling than the starting point.
07 · The Watch ListWhat We're Watching
Does Johnson run more in the offense?
More designed quarterback runs would show that Kansas State is trying to restore the dual-threat stress that once shaped Johnson’s value. A static passing role would point to a different offensive plan.
Does the deep ball return?
Johnson’s downfield passing is the cleanest answer to defenses that crowd the box. If those throws remain absent, opponents can devote more attention to the quarterback run game.
How much does the roster turnover show up?
The preseason projection places Kansas State among the conference’s top five despite major losses. Early performances will show whether that forecast reflects real depth or optimism around Klein’s arrival.
Can Kansas State avoid another late slide?
The Wildcats lost three of their final four games during Johnson’s sophomore season. A steadier finish would matter more than an early bowl projection.