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The Notebook · From JoshJosh’s Read · Logged to the LedgerOhio State

I’m not calling this 2007 yet

Utah and Wake Forest are still holding their places while Ohio State has fallen to 6-2. The next stage begins Nov. 7, when the Buckeyes host Oregon and Utah faces BYU.

JP

Josh PateThe mayor’s desk · every take timestamped, every pick graded

● On the Ledger
NOV 2, 2026

I’m not calling this 2007 yet

The Pate State

The 2007 comparison is useful, but the standings haven’t earned full chaos yet. After the games of Oct. 31, Utah is 8-0, Wake Forest is 7-1, USC is 7-2 and Ohio State is 6-2.

The big-brand backfill I described hasn’t happened. Ohio State has the weakest record of those four, and USC just beat the Buckeyes 30-18.

Utah opened No. 3 in one preseason poll and No. 4 in the coaches poll after going 11-2 in 2025. An 8-0 Utah team in a major playoff position might feel unusual because of the name on the helmet, but it wasn’t some July impossibility.

Wake Forest is different, although not completely out of nowhere. Wake was No. 14 in both preseason polls after a 9-4 season. It lost 33-20 to Miami on Sept. 18 and then won five straight by a combined score of 217-58. It has become more convincing as the calendar has moved.

That’s where the memory of 2007 matters. The season came close to giving us West Virginia against Missouri for the national championship, then ended with LSU against Ohio State. Call it the helmet restoration project.

Ohio State is the cleanest measure of whether that happens again. I picked the Buckeyes in August to reach the national championship game and lose 31-28 to Georgia.

They lost 24-23 at Texas on Sept. 12 and 30-18 at USC on Oct. 31. The second loss carries a head-to-head cost against another 7-2 Big Ten team. Ohio State’s name can keep it in the conversation. It cannot erase 12 points in Los Angeles.

The first direct answer comes Saturday, Nov. 7, when the Buckeyes host Oregon. A win gives Ohio State a path back toward the part I described: a two-loss power collecting itself late while less established contenders face November pressure. A loss makes the Buckeyes 6-3 and turns backfill from an expectation into a much harder argument.

Utah gets its own spotlight that day against BYU. The Utes have already followed a 21-13 win over Houston with a 49-25 road win at Cincinnati. Wake gets its sharper November assignment at SMU on Nov. 14.

I’m not calling 2026 a replay of 2007 yet. The path is open, and the traditional powers have already done their part by losing meaningful games.

If they refuse, the ending won’t need to imitate 2007.

— JP

ANALYSISWritten by Josh PateStandards

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Up Next — Keep ScrollingAaron Philo starts as Florida keeps Jones available against GeorgiaPhilo returns from an unspecified injury, while Tramell Jones gives Florida a possible running changeup after starting in the Oct. 17 win at Texas.

CONTINUED FROM THE NOTEBOOK

Aaron Philo starts as Florida keeps Jones available against Georgia

Philo returns from an unspecified injury, while Tramell Jones gives Florida a possible running changeup after starting in the Oct. 17 win at Texas.

What Happened Florida will start Aaron Philo, back from an unspecified injury, at quarterback against No. 3 Georgia on Saturday, Oct. 31, while keeping Tramell Jones available after starting in Florida’s Oct. 17 win at Texas.

The Gators have not said whether Jones will enter the game or outlined his workload. That leaves Florida with a possible changeup against Georgia rather than a simple return to its previous starter.

For 5-2 Florida, turning its 27-24 win at Texas into an upset of 6-1 Georgia depends on finding offense from Philo, Jones or both against a defense allowing 91.4 rushing yards per game. Georgia averages 43 points, leaving little room for the early-down losses that have bogged down the Gators.

Tim Tebow backed the decision to start Philo while pointing to Jones’ different skill set.

> “Well, I think it’s a really good decision to start Aaron if he’s healthy, and I think Tramell Jones is also an added asset to this offense because of his skill set,” Tebow said.

Why This One Matters Philo has completed 70.5% of his passes for 1,341 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. He also has 104 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Jones showed what Florida can get from a second quarterback in the Texas win, completing 22 of 35 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns while running for 41 yards. Tebow described Jones as an added asset because of his skill set.

Florida averages 194.3 rushing yards per game, fourth in the SEC, and Jadan Baugh has 763 yards and 13 touchdowns. But 31% of Florida’s carries over its past three games have gained zero or lost yards. Baugh had 13 yards in the Oct. 3 loss at Missouri and 59 in the Oct. 10 loss to South Carolina.

That is the problem against Georgia’s front. Tebow put it plainly:

> “In the last three games, 31% of Florida's runs have gone for no yards or negative yards. You do not beat Georgia that way ever. Georgia's way too good. They're way too physical. So, I think they've got to find a way to get the running game early.”

What Most People Are Missing The decision may not be limited to which quarterback takes the first snap. Jones could give Florida designed-run or option looks that make Georgia account for the quarterback and keep the Bulldogs from loading up against Baugh.

Tebow said a two-quarterback look would not surprise him.

> “I wouldn’t be shocked to see both quarterbacks play in this game,” Tebow said. “I might not even be shocked to see both of them in the huddle at a certain point because I think Tramell adds something unique to this offense.”

Receiver availability could shape how much of the passing game Florida can use. Eric Singleton Jr., Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III have logged only five snaps together this season, according to Tebow. Brown moved from probable to questionable Friday, while Bailey Stockton moved to questionable. Philo and Jones were upgraded to probable Friday.

Next Man Up Jones remains Florida’s meaningful alternative after starting in the win at Texas, though the Gators have not confirmed that he will take a snap against Georgia. He gives Jon Sumrall a runner who can change the picture without requiring Philo to leave the game for good.

What the Coaches Can Actually Change Florida can use Jones selectively, get the ball to Brown on screens if he is available, or spread Georgia before turning to Baugh. The priority is more modest than piling up one big rushing total: avoid the zero- and negative-yard plays that put the Gators behind schedule.

The Pate State Read Philo has earned the start with his 70.5% completion rate and nine touchdown passes. But Jones’ Texas performance gives Florida a credible second answer against a Georgia defense built to punish a one-dimensional run game.

Watch Florida’s opening drives for Jones’ involvement, its rate of runs stopped at or behind the line and whether Singleton, Wilson and Brown share the field. The unsettled part is how many answers Florida can put around Philo.

ANALYSISProduced with Pate State AI · reviewed by The Pate State editorial teamStandards

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