Florida has opened 2-0, outscoring Florida Atlantic and Campbell 118-24. Auburn is 2-0, with a 60-24 margin against Baylor and Southern Miss. Florida has looked more imposing.
I’m taking Auburn outright.
Florida is favored by 2½, but the part of this matchup I trust most belongs to Auburn. One quarterback is making his 35th career start. The other is making his fourth, and his first on the road in SEC play. Auburn also has DJ Durkin and many of the same defensive players at home against Florida’s new staff, new coordinator and new quarterback.
Jadan Baugh is one of the best backs in the country, and Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III give the Gators the receiving talent to make a defense defend every blade of grass. Florida scored 66 against Florida Atlantic on Sept. 5 and 52 against Campbell on Sept. 12. Auburn needed a 17-16 finish against Baylor before beating Southern Miss 43-8.
Florida hasn’t had a demanding preparation. Now Auburn gets this game at home.
That doesn’t erase Auburn’s offensive problems. Against Baylor, Byrum Brown was sacked five times while the offense allowed 11 tackles for loss, and he threw three interceptions. The operation has looked slow getting from one play to the next. Florida should limit Brown as a runner, make Auburn protect him and force him to win repeatedly with his arm.
Auburn cannot spend Saturday night waiting for rhythm to arrive. Florida has too many players who can turn a short field or one missed fit into points. The Tigers’ defense may have to keep the game close long enough for Brown and the offense to settle down, which is dangerous against Baugh and those receivers.
Florida has to get the ball to Baugh, Wilson and Brown. They require Florida to be new, on the road and facing a defense whose coordinator and many of its players have already worked together.
Last year still matters. Auburn went 5-7 in 2025 and finished 1-7 in the SEC. Florida went 4-8 and 2-6 in conference play. Two wins apiece haven’t changed much. One team has crushed two overmatched opponents; the other survived Baylor by one point. Neither has done enough to make this pick comfortable.
Florida can beat my read if Baugh is around 4½ yards per carry and Wilson and Brown are receiving regular touches. That would mean the new operation traveled cleanly and Auburn’s defensive advantage never controlled the game.
“So I'm going to take Auburn to win outright.”— Josh Pate
“So I'm going to take Auburn to win outright.”
I’m nervous because Florida may have the better players. I’m picking Auburn because Florida’s new quarterback-coordinator pairing faces its first SEC road game against an experienced quarterback and an established defense.
— JP
CONTINUED FROM THE NOTEBOOK
SEC weighs ending LSU membership amid eligibility fight
A Thursday, Sept. 10, meeting could bring sanctions affecting Lane Kiffin, LSU’s finances, voting rights and SEC season.
What Happened
SEC presidents and chancellors are scheduled to meet Thursday, Sept. 10, to consider ending LSU’s membership as the conference fights in court for the authority to enforce eligibility rules governing players who previously played professionally.
The meeting is formally documented in an amended SEC filing, but Pete Thamel said he does not expect LSU to be expelled.
> “Look, Greeny, the expectation is they are not going to throw LSU from the league,” Thamel said. “But the fact is that Greg Sankey testified for three hours in a state court hearing.”
A two-thirds vote of SEC presidents is required to remove a school, and a vote to terminate LSU’s membership would not immediately take the Tigers out of the conference. But LSU’s SEC schedule and playoff path are in play while the league tests whether it can enforce its own eligibility rules against a member school.
A federal hearing in the SEC’s lawsuit against LSU was postponed Wednesday, with no new date or time announced.
Why This One Matters
LSU beat Clemson 51-10 on Saturday, Sept. 5, after going 7-6 overall and 3-5 in the SEC in 2025. The Tigers host Louisiana Tech on Saturday, Sept. 12, then begin SEC play at Ole Miss on Sept. 19.
Any penalty affecting Kiffin, LSU’s finances or the school’s ability to participate normally in conference business would arrive before the Tigers play an SEC game. The league’s available penalties include a fine worth half a team’s operating budget, a half-season suspension for the head coach and the loss of SEC voting rights.
The SEC sued Kiffin, LSU president Wade Rousse and athletic director Verge Ausberry in federal court. The conference seeks to establish that it can apply its eligibility rules and alleges LSU failed to exercise institutional control over Kiffin.
What Most People Are Missing
Thursday’s meeting appears to be leverage in the eligibility fight, not a mechanism for LSU’s immediate departure. It remains unclear whether presidents will take a termination vote, reach the required majority or instead pursue lesser sanctions.
The dispute began in Louisiana court, where an order prevented the SEC from applying the challenged eligibility rules and granted Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris eligibility. The SEC’s federal case followed.
The unanswered question extends beyond LSU: whether a conference can discipline a school that follows a state-court order at odds with conference rules. LSU’s membership, schedule and postseason status could depend on the courts’ answer.
Next Man Up
The case already has affected LSU’s roster decisions. Wright and Harris were left off the Tigers’ final roster before the Clemson opener despite receiving eligibility in Louisiana court. LSU was preparing to add two other players, Pete Nakos reported.
LSU has not identified those players or said whether Wright and Harris could join the roster later.
The Pate State Read
Expulsion may be unlikely, but the SEC has placed the option in its filing and put LSU’s leadership under direct pressure. A failed termination vote would not end the dispute if presidents choose financial penalties, a suspension for Kiffin or stripped voting rights.
For LSU, the court fight has already moved from a legal argument to its roster. Thursday could make it a conference-season problem, too.
What to Watch Next
The meeting: Whether SEC presidents formally vote on termination and whether two-thirds support it.
The penalty: Whether the league pursues sanctions short of removal, including a Kiffin suspension, a major fine or lost voting rights.
The roster: Whether Wright, Harris or the two players LSU reportedly planned to add appear after the Clemson opener.
The court: When the postponed federal hearing is reset and whether a judge limits SEC action against LSU.
ANALYSISProduced with Pate State AI · reviewed by The Pate State editorial teamStandards 
The Pate State