Why I’m taking SMU over Florida State
SMU brings a 9-4 baseline and the quarterback advantage to Tallahassee. Florida State’s path depends on controlling the game before Kevin Jennings forces Ashton Daniels into a passing contest.
The Pate StateI’m taking SMU to beat Florida State and cover 2½ points on Monday, Sept. 7. The first number behind that pick isn’t the spread. It’s 9-4 against 5-7, the records these teams carried out of 2025.
SMU went 6-2 in ACC play and opened 2026 ranked No. 19 in the AP poll and No. 20 in the coaches poll. Florida State went 2-6 in the league and entered this season unranked. The quarterback gap matters, but Kevin Jennings versus Ashton Daniels isn’t an otherwise even game.
I think SMU is better, and Jennings makes that difference show up over four quarters.
SMU is opening on the road, replacing both coordinators and working portal additions into the roster. Its defensive front finished 19th against the run last season but has been rebuilt. The corners are a question. Florida State has also played once, beating New Mexico State 34-17 on Aug. 29, while SMU has not.
A 17-point win isn’t a stumble because the favorite didn’t look clean throughout it. Florida State already got its opening-night mistakes on film and gets SMU in Tallahassee before the Mustangs know exactly what their rebuilt front can handle.
Florida State’s best version keeps Daniels around 20 to 25 pass attempts, gets running back Quintrevion Wisner involved and creates touches for wide receiver Duce Robinson after his quiet opener. That puts the burden on SMU’s new front and keeps Jennings from turning Florida State’s secondary into the center of the game.
The other script worries me more for the Seminoles. SMU has a veteran offensive line, and New Mexico State created openings in the Florida State secondary even in a 34-17 loss. Give Jennings time, and SMU can make Florida State chase points. That asks Daniels to move toward 40 attempts, and his cited comparison of 45 turnover-worthy plays against 25 touchdown passes makes that a bad trade for Florida State.
Pressure from the Seminoles’ defensive front can change it. Jennings can’t exploit coverage openings while moving off his spot all night. Florida State has to disrupt a veteran line, avoid falling behind and protect Daniels from the game becoming a dropback contest.
Clemson entered its Sept. 5 trip to LSU ranked No. 23 in the coaches poll, and Louisville entered its Sept. 6 trip to Ole Miss ranked No. 24 in the AP poll. SMU arrived with more public credibility than either one.
Miami can operate in its own tier, but the ACC needs another team to keep stacking wins. A ranked SMU losing to a Florida State team coming off 5-7 would thin that group immediately, especially alongside losses by Clemson or Louisville.
A Florida State win would mean its front controlled Jennings or its offense avoided putting the game on Daniels’ arm, and I’d own that miss. I’m still taking SMU to cover 2½.
— JP