Auburn beat Baylor 17–16 on Saturday, Sept. 5, after Byrum Brown threw three interceptions, took five sacks and played behind an offense that surrendered 11 tackles for loss. I’m treating that as Auburn’s floor.
“This is the absolute floor.”
“This is the absolute floor.”— Josh Pate
That’s not permission to ignore the problems. Auburn went 5–7 last season and 1–7 in SEC play, and its offensive line’s trouble against Baylor looked familiar. Protection broke down, early-down losses created long-yardage situations, and three interceptions kept sending an already taxed defense back onto the field.
Auburn is 1–0 because Brown produced when the down demanded it. He went 8 of 12 on third down for 110 yards. The defense denied Baylor’s two-point attempt after DJ Lagway drove the Bears for a late touchdown, with Eric Winters helping finish the stop.
Auburn could have protected the new staff and new roster with an opener that revealed nothing. Instead, it played another major-conference team, put its biggest problems on film and survived by one point.
Auburn has Southern Miss on Sept. 12 before Florida arrives Sept. 19. By then, the line has to reduce the immediate penetration that gave Baylor 11 tackles for loss, and Brown has to get through a game without making the defense absorb the cost of three interceptions. Florida will grade my floor claim. A repeat of the Baylor offensive performance would turn an ugly opener into a pattern.
Auburn begins October at Tennessee and follows with a trip to Georgia. Protection issues that can be survived in a 17–16 opener become harder to hide on those roads when negative plays keep the offense behind schedule.
LSU comes to Auburn on Oct. 24, and the Tigers finish the month at Ole Miss. That October run means Sept. 5 has to be the bottom, not the same problem that helped produce a 1–7 conference record in 2025.
Baylor’s side is less stable and just as interesting. Lagway completed 50 percent of his passes and committed two turnovers, with other throws carrying turnover risk. He delivered late, responding after one apparent touchdown was dropped by taking Baylor back into the end zone. He was laboring physically near the finish, but no diagnosis should be invented from what was visible during the game.
That wide swing is why I can see Baylor losing a game it should control and pushing a ranked opponent deep into November. Prairie View A&M comes first on Sept. 12, but Louisiana Tech on Sept. 19 is the sharper checkpoint. Baylor was 5–7 last season, including 3–6 in the Big 12, and the Auburn loss did nothing to ease the pressure around Dave Aranda.
Baylor visits BYU on Nov. 14. BYU went 12–2 overall and 8–1 in conference play last season, opened 2026 ranked No. 14 and No. 15 in the two major polls, and beat Utah Tech 63–7 in its opener. Saying Baylor can push that team in Provo is a much larger statement than calling the Bears unpredictable.
I consider Auburn’s opener the floor. Auburn has until Florida on Sept. 19 to begin building above three interceptions, five sacks and 11 tackles for loss.
— JP
CONTINUED FROM THE NOTEBOOK
Swinney must settle Clemson’s quarterback question after LSU rout
Clemson managed 40 rushing yards and eight first downs in a 51-10 loss at LSU before replacing Christopher Vizzina with Tait Reynolds.
What Happened
Clemson’s 2026 opener became the worst loss of Dabo Swinney’s head-coaching career Saturday, Sept. 5, as LSU handed the Tigers a 51-10 defeat that dropped them to 0-1 after last season’s 7-6 finish.
A road loss to an LSU team ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP Top 25 and No. 13 in the AFCA Coaches Poll would not have defined Clemson’s season by itself. The way Clemson lost did: 40 rushing yards, eight first downs to LSU’s 38 and a quarterback change before halftime.
Swinney did not soften it afterward.
“We got our asses kicked,” Swinney said. “We gotta go win next week. It’s an embarrassing performance, coaching and playing. We’re going to have to own that. We can’t let that lead to another loss.”
Clemson now needs an offense that functions against Georgia Southern on Saturday, Sept. 12. Without one — and without a settled answer at quarterback — another middling season would turn Swinney’s long-term standing into a program-level question.
Why This One Matters
Clemson and LSU each went 7-6 in 2025. LSU opened 2026 looking like a ranked team ready to move forward; Clemson’s offense never found a counter.
The Tigers had negative rushing yards when they replaced Christopher Vizzina with freshman Tait Reynolds before halftime. Vizzina threw an interception LSU returned for a touchdown and finished with 83 passing yards on 16 attempts. Reynolds went 4-for-6 for 22 yards and lost 9 yards rushing.
The numbers put immediate pressure on Chad Morris, whom Swinney hired as offensive coordinator after Morris’ previous Clemson run from 2011 through 2014. Morris had not had a successful offensive-coordinator stint since that first tenure.
Swinney sold the reunion on the players Morris would coach.
“There are always tough decisions that have to be made in this profession, and though I had to make a couple tough decisions, it was an easy decision to hire Chad Morris,” Swinney said when explaining the hire. “I’m really excited for our players. It’s pretty cool to have guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins and a bunch of great players shooting me text messages with their excitement knowing what’s to come offensively. I think we’ve got elite offensive personnel, and the name of the game is points.”
Clemson scored 10 in Morris’ debut.
What Most People Are Missing
The quarterback issue did not begin in Baton Rouge. Clemson considered transfer options during the past portal cycle but did not bring in a quarterback to compete with Vizzina.
That left Reynolds as the alternative when the offense stalled. Vizzina had little help from a running game that was going backward when he left, but his interception became LSU points. Reynolds changed the quarterback without changing Clemson’s direction.
Swinney’s two offseason bets now sit together: Morris must find an answer with the quarterbacks already in the room while Clemson repairs a rushing attack that produced 40 yards.
Next Man Up
Clemson has not named a starter for Georgia Southern, and Swinney has not announced a staff or personnel change.
Vizzina started and threw 16 passes before the switch. Reynolds completed four of six but finished with minus-9 rushing yards. The Sept. 12 opener against Georgia Southern will show which quarterback Morris and Swinney trust to take the first snap.
What the Coaches Can Actually Change
Morris has to settle the quarterback decision and get Clemson’s offense moving before North Carolina visits Sept. 19. The LSU tape offers a short list: Clemson must run for more than 40 yards, create more than eight first downs and give its quarterback an offense that does not collapse before halftime.
The Pate State Read
One defeat at ranked LSU does not decide Swinney’s future. The 41-point margin carries more force because Clemson entered it off a 7-6 season, then watched the areas it chose not to reinforce from outside the program fail together.
Clemson’s calendar offers a chance to respond before Miami visits Oct. 3: Georgia Southern, North Carolina and a Sept. 25 trip to California. But Georgia Southern is not merely a reset game. It is the first answer to whether Vizzina returns, Reynolds takes over or the offense remains unsettled.
Swinney would be owed $57 million in buyout money if Clemson moved on from him this season, according to the reporting pack. Clemson has not said whether its administration has discussed his job security.
What to Watch Next
Start with the first offensive snap against Georgia Southern: Vizzina or Reynolds. Then watch whether Clemson gets into positive rushing production before halftime after falling below zero by the LSU switch, and whether its first-down total moves beyond eight.
Swinney called LSU the worst loss of his career. His quarterback choice is now the first move in Clemson’s response.
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