Five favorites carried lines of at least 11½ points into Saturday, Sept. 5. Four were favored by more than three touchdowns: Alabama and Michigan each laid 27½, Oregon was 24½ over Boise State, USC was 21½ over Fresno State, and Memphis was 11½ over Arkansas State.

I wasn’t predicting five upsets. I was rejecting the automatic version of Week 1, where the logo and point spread do all the thinking before a new roster has played a meaningful snap together.

“So my protocol now is take nothing for granted.”

Oregon-Boise State carried the most national weight. Oregon opened No. 2 in both major polls after going 13-2 in 2025. Boise State went 9-5, including 6-2 in Pac-12 play, and entered the game No. 46 in our power rating. A 24½-point line asked a team with a history of slow starts under Dan Lanning to separate comfortably from a program that won nine games and knows how to stay attached.

The clean rebuttal is Oregon’s roster and 13-win standard. Fine. That’s why the Ducks were favored by more than three touchdowns. But preseason No. 2 turns a slow opener into a national referendum by the third quarter. Oregon didn’t need to lose for Boise to make the afternoon uncomfortable. A one-possession game after halftime would have forced the Ducks to use more of the offense, play their primary personnel deeper and answer questions nobody planned to ask until Sept. 26 at USC.

Boise’s calendar sharpened the point. The Broncos were scheduled to host Memphis on Sept. 12, one week after playing Oregon. Boise had to absorb the physical cost of Eugene, while Memphis had Arkansas State before making the trip west.

Memphis-Arkansas State was the cleaner example. Memphis opened with a 27-21 win at UNLV before being asked to cover 11½ against Arkansas State. The 2025 records didn’t describe a canyon, either. Memphis finished 8-5 overall and 4-4 in AAC play; Arkansas State went 7-6 and 5-3 in the Sun Belt.

That doesn’t erase differences in personnel or conference strength. Memphis had one more overall win in 2025, while Arkansas State had the better conference record. Then Memphis played a six-point opener. An 11½-point spread asked for more than those numbers showed.

The other three games raised the same question: how much can a heavy favorite prove without exposing everything it has installed?

Michigan had a new offense around Bryce Underwood and a 27½-point line against Western Michigan. Alabama was young, had Keelon Russell at quarterback and wanted to establish a running game it hadn’t shown since 2024. Both teams could be better than their opponents and still look uneven because Week 1 asks staffs to balance winning comfortably with keeping the call sheet tight.

Alabama also carried the memory of its 2025 opener against Florida State. That should have made the Tide more alert, not automatically more polished. Preparation can prevent a team from overlooking East Carolina. It can’t manufacture game reps for young personnel before they take them.

USC had its own practical complication: a 5 p.m. local kickoff on a Friday against Fresno State, with attendance under examination. Fresno had enough athletic ability to punish loose protection, missed tackles or a flat opening quarter. The Trojans could be 21½-point favorites without being granted a full stadium or a clean first half.

The spreads showed the expected difference between the teams. They did not promise that new quarterbacks, new offenses and changed rosters would find their cleanest version in game one.

It only required one favorite to learn that September doesn’t honor assumptions.

— JP