“The arrow is still pointing up for the program.”

I’m not moving off that because Texas A&M loses 10 players to the draft or because the path back to the playoff is narrower. The Aggies went 11–2 and 7–1 in the SEC last year, and they enter 2026 ranked No. 8 in both major preseason polls. This is a top-eight team after substantial personnel turnover.

Marcel Reed gives A&M a quarterback ceiling most teams cannot manufacture. He threw for more than 3,100 yards, added 500 on the ground and accounted for 31 touchdowns last season. The next step is more dependable short and intermediate throws and fewer empty drives.

Mario Craver returns after nearly reaching 1,000 yards, and Isaiah Horton arrives as a big-bodied target with red-zone and big-play utility. Ashton Bethel-Roman and Terry Bussey are part of a receiver group with more than one answer. A quarterback who can distribute quickly to a deep receiving corps does not eliminate offensive-line questions, but it can keep every protection issue from becoming a third-and-long issue.

Offensive line is the central roster question. Only the center returns from last year’s group, and A&M went to the portal for what could be three or four starters. The staff believed in the spring it could get seven or eight linemen to a winning standard, but that has to become September evidence. Missouri State opens the season Sept. 5, Arizona State comes to College Station on Sept. 12, and Kentucky follows on Sept. 19. By the time A&M goes to LSU on Sept. 26, the Aggies should know whether they can run the ball and protect Reed without asking him to create every difficult answer himself.

With Le’Veon Moss, EJ Smith and Amari Daniels gone, A&M needs Rueben Owens II to provide more than depth. The former five-star tailback has the talent to give the offense a runner it can ride, but the offensive line and running game are connected questions. If A&M can stay on schedule, Reed’s passing game becomes harder to defend. If it cannot, the new front will be tested in obvious passing situations before the schedule reaches its hardest stretch.

I expect the defensive line to remain a strength despite losing three of four starters. CJ Mims and Anto Saka join the group as transfers. A&M finished second in sacks but produced only three interceptions. The backend has to turn pressure into possessions, field position and, occasionally, points.

The Aggies have Arkansas on Oct. 3, Missouri on Oct. 10 and The Citadel on Oct. 17 before hosting Alabama on Oct. 24. The closing test begins after that: at South Carolina on Nov. 7, Tennessee at home on Nov. 14, at Oklahoma on Nov. 21 and Texas in College Station on Nov. 27. That is five consequential conference games in the final six weeks, including two road trips and a rivalry game to finish.

My preseason bracket does not include A&M, while LSU is No. 8 and Alabama is No. 10. A&M will have direct chances to change the comparison. LSU comes early, Alabama arrives Oct. 24, and the Texas game closes the regular season under the lights. A 9–3 A&M team would have to make those games part of a resume strong enough to separate itself from other three-loss SEC teams.

I think 9–3 is the most likely landing spot, and it would not tell me Texas A&M is sliding backward. With this quarterback, this receiver room and a defense capable of preserving its front-seven identity, 11–1 remains a legitimate best-case outcome. Arizona State and LSU will show whether the new offensive core is ready. The closing run will show whether the playoff case survives.

— JP