Why I’m taking Missouri against the Ole Miss spread
Missouri’s explosive running game attacks the nation’s No. 111 run defense, while its pass rush can keep Trinidad Chambliss from controlling the game. I lean Ole Miss outright, but not by seven.
The Pate StateOle Miss is 111th nationally against the run, and Missouri arrives with the fourth SEC player in 20 years to rush for more than 200 yards in consecutive games. I lean Ole Miss to win, but I’m taking Missouri plus six and a half.
This can become a last-possession game because Missouri doesn’t need to move the ball five yards at a time. The Tigers rank third nationally in runs of at least 50 yards. Ole Miss ranks 122nd in runs of at least 40 yards allowed. Jamal Roberts can spend two downs getting crowded and erase it with one crease on third down.
The common opponent makes the gap stranger. Missouri beat Florida 45–17 on Oct. 3. Ole Miss lost 52–28 at Florida on Sept. 26. Missouri was 52 points better against Florida, yet Ole Miss is getting nearly a touchdown.
Missouri entered the matchup 5–1, with its only loss a 31–24 game at Mississippi State on Sept. 26. Ole Miss was 4–1, with the Florida loss as its lone defeat. Ole Miss opened the season No. 9 in the AP poll and No. 10 in the coaches poll, four and three spots ahead of Missouri. It also finished 13–2 in 2025, while Missouri went 8–5.
Austin Simmons has been excellent for Missouri, with his only interception coming on a tipped ball. This is the one Missouri game where I don’t give the Tigers the quarterback advantage. Trinidad Chambliss has shown he can turn a correct defensive call into a losing play because pressure doesn’t automatically put him on the ground.
Missouri has the front to make that distinction count. The Tigers are top 10 against the run, and they are one of four Power Four teams with two players who have at least five sacks. The trouble is behind them: Missouri ranks 91st against the pass. Getting Chambliss off his spot helps. Bringing him down keeps an improvised throw from attacking that secondary.
Ole Miss has the cleaner setup. The Rebels had an open date before beating Vanderbilt 52–17 on Oct. 10, and Kewan Lacy carried only seven times. Missouri followed its 45–17 win over Florida with a 27–6 win over Texas A&M, both at home. Its previous road game produced the loss at Mississippi State. The Tigers have shown they can respond after that defeat; they haven’t shown that the same formula travels into Oxford.
A comfortable Ole Miss win probably looks like Chambliss repeatedly escaping Missouri’s rush and forcing Simmons to answer through the air. Missouri’s path is narrower but obvious: let Roberts and the offensive line hunt explosive runs, shorten Ole Miss possessions and make one or two sacks that pressure alone cannot replace.
Six and a half is too much for Ole Miss against a 5–1 team that can run the ball. My call is Ole Miss surviving the last possession, with Missouri staying inside the number.
— JP